Thoughts on insider trading charges against McKinsey, Intel, IBM'ers

"A man who has never gone to school may steal from a freight car; but if he has a university education, he may steal the whole railroad"

~~ Theodore Roosevelt

If you have to read 1 article today...

Read this...

The nature of wealth

http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14587262#

Age of entitlement to Age of thrift

Pimco Credit May 27 2009

A short history of Japan and Korea

Is here... highly recommended.

Soon, this is how the various banks will have to raise capital

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1RRu1DRtXg

UBS explain how they screwed up

UBS published their shareholder report detailing how they got shafted so badly with mortgage bonds. Seems to be a pretty honest appraisal.

Download the report here (pdf link on right side of page)

The higlights:
-- 66% of losses from CDO warehousing
-- 16% of losses from trading by Dillon Read (UBS-owned hedge fund)
-- 10% of losses from cash-collateral trading

Datapoint of the day: Foreign reserves in oil terms

In 2003, oil prices were at US$25/barrel.
China's foreign reserves were US$ 400 billion.
China's foreign reserves in oil terms = 16 billion barrels

Today, oil prices are US$115/barrel.
China's foreign reserves are US$ 1.6 trillion.
Foreign reserves in oil terms = 14 billion barrels

The Daniel Loeb anthology - Chapter 2

Expanding on our previous coverage of Daniel Loeb's unique activism style, below is a letter sent to the management of Salton Inc, makers of the George Foreman grill.

..................
..................
In the most recent quarterly results announced Wednesday, February 9th, the Company reported yet another "miss" on both lower revenues and poor margins. Short interest is one of the few benchmarks that seem to remain stable, with nearly 50% of the shares lent out to speculators who are betting that Mr.Dreimann will lead this Company into bankruptcy. Meanwhile, the Company's proposed restructuring, which has been in the works for over a year, remains a chimera.

What is most astounding about the Company's apparent death spiral is Mr.Dreimann's inexplicably insouciant attitude and the fact that he remains in charge. His tone and demeanor in our meeting last summer and on the conference call seemed to me to be one of denial and arrogance. I was disappointed that he refused to allow me to speak on the Company's conference call, but I might have forgiven him had he called me personally to apologize rather than having his lackey, Ken Sgro, insult my intelligence by blaming the slight on a "conference call administrator malfunction."

The conference call debacle pales in comparison to what I witnessed last summer when I attended the U.S. Open tennis final. You can only imagine my consternation when I looked around the stadium and saw the Salton name emblazoned all around the interior of the stadium walls next to such robust companies as IBM, JP Morgan and Mass Mutual. I had to wonder how much precious capital had been squandered in such a poorly conceived marketing scheme to promote the Salton name when the Company was in such dire financial straits. My bewilderment quickly turned to ange when I saw the crowd seeking autographs from the Olsen twins just below the private box that seemed to be occupied by Mr. Dreimann and others who were enjoying the match and summer sun while hobnobbing, snacking on shrimp cocktails and sipping chilled Gewurztraminer.

While Mr. Dreimann hobnobs at such social events and is driven around in a chauffeured limousine - I can only assume he has a chauffeur paid for by the Company; how else can one explain the $52,966 annual car allowance disclosed in the Company's proxy statement? -- Salton's shareholders and bondholders suffer the consequences. What is equally shocking as Mr. Dreimann's poor management, behavior and the fact that he is awarded anything more than subway tokens for his transportation needs is that this Board of Directors has sat idly by while he lays waste to this Company. In addition to the car allowance, how can the Board's compensation committee possibly justify granting Mr. Dreimann's exorbitant $600,000 annual salary?

One would assume that only a Board of Directors with no vested interest would look on while a CEO wastes corporate assets, is accused of irregularities with respect to the Company's distribution channel and is accused of trying to bully customers into engaging in uncompetitive behavior with respect to pricing. On the contrary, Centre Partners holds a $40 million preferred stock investment in the Company. Unfortunately for Centre, these preferred shares convert at a price
of $17.00 per share, which was a very substantial premium to start with and is an astronomical 494% premium to Friday's closing price. Nevertheless, one would think that Centre would want to protect the value of its preferred shares and perform its fiduciary duty, which in our opinion would involve relieving Leonhard Dreimann of his management duties as well as canceling his chauffeur-driven limousine.

In the course of my investigation into corporate governance matters at Salton I decided it would b worthwhile to understand Centre's operating philosophy and culture and to see why Centre managing directors, Robert A. Bergmann and Bruce A. Pollack, have not taken swift action to terminate the Company's bungling CEO. What struck me about Centre's website (www.centrepartners.com) was the wishy washy tone replete with business school jargon, buzz-words and cliches but little substance. Two examples are below:

"Our reputation rests firmly on the integrity, commitment and intelligence
of our professionals."

"Responsiveness has always been an essential, core value of our firm.
Whenever we are called by our partners, we react quickly to provide counsel
or services they need, and stay by their side through challenging times."

With all due respect to the professional staff at Centre, how intelligent was making a $40 million investment in Salton at a very substantial conversion premium, which could all be lost in a "cram down" should the Company have to file for bankruptcy? Secondly, one can only wonder how responsive Centre has actually been in light of the value destruction. I looked through the entire website and found it curious that there was no mention of holding management accountable or of Centre's own investment performance, which I imagine is probably pretty mediocre and inferior to that of the firm I manage. Third Point's culture differs from Centre's in our emphasis on performance, money making and accountability, in stark contrast to Centre's affable "Mr. Rogers" approach to investing. I suppose that if Third Point were to have a website, rather than the feel-good background of two shaking hands, we would likely depict a well-worn boot colliding with the backside of an incompetent manager.

It is admirable that Centre describes itself on its home page as a "firm with a middle market focus that seeks to make friendly acquisitions and equity investments," but the time for friendship with this CEO should end now. We at Third Point demand that Leonhard Dreimann be terminated immediately and replaced by either David Sabin or William Rue as interim CEO until such time as a qualified executive can be found to lead the Company back to the level of performance and prosperity that we believe is possible under new leadership.

Sincerely,
/s/ Daniel S. Loeb

Daniel S. Loeb
Chief Executive Officer

Related Posts:
The Daniel Loeb anthology - Chapter 1

The Daniel Loeb anthology - Chapter 1

Daniel Loeb runs a US$3.5 billion hedge fund called Third Point LLC. He is n activist fund manager known for sending sarcastic, searing open letters to the management of companies which he thinks are not doing well.

The letter featured in this post is not to any management; instead it is a recruiting email exchange. This should give you an opening into the mindset of the guy and the nature of his other letters.

—–Original Message—–
From: Alan Lewis
Sent: Tuesday, March 22, 2005 11:34 AM
To: Daniel Loeb
Subject: CV

Daniel,

Thanks for calling earlier today. Enclosed is my cv for your review. I look forward to following up with you when you have more time.

Best regards,

Alan

Alan D. Lewis
Managing Director
Sthenos Capital Ltd.

—–Original Message—–
From: Daniel Loeb
Sent: 27 March 2005 23:08
To: Alan Lewis
Subject: RE: CV

what are your 3 best current european ideas?

Daniel Loeb
Managing Member
Third Point LLC

—–Original Message—–
From: Alan Lewis
Sent: Monday, March 28, 2005 1:03 AM
To: Daniel Loeb
Subject: RE: CV

Daniel,

I am sorry but it does not interest me to move forward in this way. If you wish to have a proper discussion about what you are looking to accomplish in Europe, and see how I might fit in, fine.

Lesson one of dealing in Europe, business is not conducted in the same informal manner as in the U.S.

Best regards,

Alan

—–Original Message—–
From: Daniel Loeb
Sent: 28 March 2005 09:50
To: Alan Lewis
Subject: RE: CV

One idea would suffice.

We are an aggressive performance oriented fund looking for blood thirsty competitive individuals who show initiative and drive to make outstanding investments. This is why I have built third point into a $3.0 billion fund with average net returns of 30% net over 10 years.

We find most brits are bit set in their ways and prefer to knock back a pint at the pub and go shooting on weekend rather than work hard. Lifestyle choices and important and knowing one’s limitations with respect to dealing in a competitive environment is too. That is Lesson 1 at my shop.

It is good that we learned about this incompatibility early in the process and I wish you all the best in your career in traditional fund management.

Daniel

—–Original Message—–
From: Alan Lewis
Sent: Monday, March 28, 2005 4:08 AM
To: Daniel Loeb
Subject: RE: CV

Daniel,

I guess your reputation is proven correct. I have not been in traditional fund management for more than eleven years. I did not achieve the success I have by knocking back a pint, as you say. I am aggressive, and I do love this business. I am Half American and half French, and having spent more than half my life on this side of the pond I think I know a little something about how one conducts business in the UK and Europe.

There are many opportunities in the UK and Europe, shareholder regard is only beginning to be accepted and understood. However, if you come here and handle it in the same brash way you have in the U.S. I guarantee you will fail. Things are done differently here, yes place in
society still matters, where one went to school etc. It will take tact, and patience (traits you obviously do not have) to succeed in this arena.

Good luck!

Alan

—–Original Message—–
From: Daniel Loeb
Sent: 28 March 2005 10:23
To: Alan Lewis
Subject: RE: CV

Well, you will have plenty of time to discuss your “place in society” with the other fellows at the club.

I love the idea of a French/english unemployed guy whose fund just blew up telling me that I am going to fail.

At Third Point, like the financial markets in general,”one’s place in society” does not matter at all. We are a bunch of scrappy guys from diverse backgrounds (Jewish Muslim, Hindu etc) who enjoy outwitting pompous asses like yourself in financial markets globally.

Your “inexplicable insouciance” and disrespect is fascinating; It must be a French/English aristocratic thing. I will be following your “career” with great interest.

I have copied Patrick so that he can introduce you to people who might be a better fit-there must be an insurance company or mutual fund out there for you.

Dan Loeb

————————————————

From: Alan Lewis
To: Daniel Loeb
March 28 2005

Hubris.

————————————————

From: Daniel Loeb
To: Alan Lewis
March 28 2005

Laziness.

Via BankersBall

Top traders in 2006

Trader Monthly magazine has come out with its list of top traders for 2006. To make the top 5, you need to have made 1 billion. To make the top 100, only 50 large ones...

Buggers seem to have lost my application form which I had filled out in triplicate and got attested by a notary!

Name

Firm

Age

Est. Income

John Arnold

Centaurus Energy

33

$1.5-2B

James Simons

Renaissance Technologies Corp.

68

$1.5-$2B

Eddie Lampert

ESL Investments

44

$1-1.5B

T. Boone Pickens

BP Capital

78

$1B-1.5

Stevie Cohen

SAC Capital Advisors

50

$1B

Stephen Feinberg

Cerberus Capital

47

$800-900M

Paul Tudor Jones

Tudor Investment Corp.

53

$700-800M

Bruce Kovner

Caxton Associates

62

$700-800M

Israel Englander

Millennium Management

58

$600-700M

David Shaw

D.E. Shaw & Co.

55

$600-700M

Full details here.
via Rajagopal

Interestingly, #2 in 2006 - James Simons - was #1 in 2005, earning around the same $1.5 billion range. He is a mathematician who is co-credited with the Chern-Simons theory. Read more about Simons here.

Simons runs "Renaissance Technologies" (RenTec) which specializes in black-box program trading. This is a trading technique which uses computer programs to automatically buy and sell equities/bonds/options and other instruments based on a variety of models. RenTec is said to specialise in statistical arbitrage (stat arb). A more illustrative and easier description of stat arb can be digested on Roger Ehrenberg's blog where he explains stat arb opportunities in the Dow's 540 point drop in Feb of this year.

RenTec is rumored to run 2 varieties of these programs - (1) where the program automatically does the full trading and (2) where the program spits out potential trades to a "human trading desk" who then optimize the recommendations for best leverage. Because the fully automated programs leverage stat arb models, they generate an enormous volume of trades squeezing tiny profits in each transaction. In the past, RenTec programs have generated 10% of total daily volume on the NASDAQ.

RenTec has around 250 employees, most of whom are Ph.D's in Mathematics, Physics, Comp Sci etc. and have never worked on Wall Street. From some info I had read sometime back, only the head of their "human trading desk" is from Wall Street.

If anybody wants to share in that wealth, you can apply here. Don't forget to give my name as the referral if you get in so that I can collect the 10k referral fee etc etc.

Europe crosses US in stock market value. First time since WWII

Via the NYPost


You can't pick one single reason for this. Instead it is a confluence of factors that have come together at the right time...
-- It's amazing what a stable solid currency can do for the long-term economic prospects of a region. If the Euro and the Pound continue to perform well against the dollar, it is better to hold Euro and Pound assets - here European stocks
-- More and more Asian and European firms prefer to list outside the US as US markets seem to be inefficient. Underwriting fees in the US are the highest in the world, coupled with the fact that IPO's are slowly becoming commoditized.
-- There is more growth in companies outside the US. So more companies tend to list outside the US.
-- etc etc

Temasek Holdings and GIC: A short profile of Singapore government investment firms

For those who have read my previous post on (Temasek + GIC) vs. RBI tug-of-war, here is some info on the Singapore government's two investment firms - Temasek Holdings and GIC.

Temasek Holdings
Mandate: After independence, the Singapore Government established Government Linked Companies (GLC's) to kick-start investments and growth in key industries. The aim was to setup companies that would put Singapore on the map as a leader in many emerging and important industry sectors; but which needed significant capital which could not be provided by individual entrepreneurs. E.g.: Singapore Airlines, Singapore Technologies, Chartered Semiconductor, Ports of Singapore Authority, Neptune Orient Lines, Singapore Mass Rapid Transit, DBS Bank etc etc.

Initially most of these investments were controlled by the Ministry of Finance (MoF). Temasek Holdings was setup to take charge of investments in many key GLC's. The original mandate was to continue to invest in local Singapore companies to provide them the capital to compete more effectively and develop key technologies on the global stage. Over the years, Temasek Holdings has also invested its returns in external companies and markets to improve returns.

Established: 1974

Portfolio size: US$ 80 billion

Average return: 18% compounded annually over 32 years

India direct investments:
ICICI Bank
ICICI OneSource (BPO)
Mahindra & Mahindra
Bajaj Auto
Apollo Hospitals
Medreich
Tata Teleservices
Reliance Energy
Shringar Cinemas

India fund investments:
Merlion Fund
WestBridge Capital Partners
Reliance India Power fund

Useful Links:
Temasek Holdings 2006 Annual Review
On The Prowl - Profile of India approach by BusinessWorld India
Profile of India approach by Asia Times



Government Investment Corporation





Mandate: To preserve the international purchasing power of the Singapore government's foreign exchange reserves.

Established: 1981

Portfolio size: US$ 100 billion

Average return: 9.5% compounded annually over 25 years

India direct investments:
Matrix Laboratories
Punjab Tractors
Ambuja Cement

India fund investments:
IDFC
Actis Private Equity Fund
IL & FS

Useful Links:
GIC India investment profile - BusinessWorld India
GIC investment returns - Asia Finance blog
Singapore: The red dot and the dancing elephant - BusinessWorld India

(Temasek + GIC) vs. RBI tug-of-war

Haha... What we all thought would happen has come to pass.

The Singapore government's uber-investment firms - Temasek Holdings and GIC had been stymied for some time in their efforts to each take a 10% sake in India's ICICI bank. The Temasek and GIC efforts were blocked by the Indian central bank - Reserve Bank of India (RBI). There is a law that caps to 10% the holdings of a foreign entity in an Indian financial institution. RBI had argued that since both Temasek and GIC were owned by the Singapore government, they are considered a single entity.

It had been commonly thought that RBI was simply jockeying with the law to negotiate a Singapore banking license for the State Bank of India (SBI). All of that has proved true. There is news that GIC and Temasek may be cleared by June to each take a 10% stake. In return, SBI will get a Singapore banking license.

The anti-portfolio

Everybody has a portfolio nowadays. With the surge in liquidity over the past 5 years from ultra-low interest rates, equity markets have been doing very very well, worldwide. And the common man with his 200% appreciated portfolio feels like a BSD.

As Mark Cuban said so endearingly -
"I swear people are more protective of their stocks than they are of family members. You can call a guy's wife fat, but if you tell him that TASR is overvalued, watch out. Every ounce of venom comes out."

So, it is a refreshing change to see a well-known venture capital firm come up with an "anti-portfolio" - the startups which they refused to invest in, and which became stupendously successful. As Bessemer Venture Partners explains -
"Whatever the reason, we would like to honor these companies -- our "anti-portfolio" -- whose phenomenal success inspires us in our ongoing endeavors to build growing businesses. Or, to put it another way: if we had invested in any of these companies, we might not still be working."

Overall, a gentle and humble way to remind us that we are human, imperfect and each of us have our own failings. So please keep those feet planted firmly on the ground...

Check out Bessemer's anti-portfolio here.

2007 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders from Warren Buffet

Warren Buffet publishes an annual letter to his shareholders. The letters have a general pattern -
-- Overall performance of Berkshire over the past year
-- Analysis of the Berkshire performance by sector. Special focus on the good and bad sectors and why these sectors did well (or not)
-- Acquisitions in the previous year and why the acquisitions were made
-- Major future issues that affect Berkshire as a firm
-- Tirade against derivatives
-- Tirade against hedge funds
-- Warning about US trade deficit
-- Some interesting tidbits of info
All of these sprinkled with amusing quotes...

I am no finance wizard. So I leave it to the readers to contemplate the deeper content in the letter. You can download the letter here.

But lemme decorate this post with some of those amusing quotes...

"
In fairness, we’ve seen plenty of successes as well, some truly outstanding. There are many giant company managers whom I greatly admire; Ken Chenault of American Express, Jeff Immelt of G.E. and Dick Kovacevich of Wells Fargo come quickly to mind. But I don’t think I could do the management job they do. And I know I wouldn’t enjoy many of the duties that come with their positions – meetings,speeches, foreign travel, the charity circuit and governmental relations. For me, Ronald Reagan had it right: “It’s probably true that hard work never killed anyone – but why take the chance?”

We continue, however, to need “elephants” in order for us to use Berkshire’s flood of incoming cash. Charlie and I must therefore ignore the pursuit of mice and focus our acquisition efforts on much bigger game. Our exemplar is the older man who crashed his grocery cart into that of a much younger fellow while both were shopping. The elderly man explained apologetically that he had lost track of his wife and was preoccupied searching for her. His new acquaintance said that by coincidence his wife had also wandered off and suggested that it might be more efficient if they jointly looked for the two women. Agreeing, the older man asked his new companion what his wife looked like. “She’s a gorgeous blonde,” the fellow answered, “with a body that would cause a bishop to go through a stained glass window, and she’s wearing tight white shorts. How about yours?” The senior citizen wasted no words: “Forget her, we’ll look for yours.”
What we are looking for is described on page 25. If you have an acquisition candidate that fits, call me – day or night. And then watch me shatter a stained glass window.

When Charlie and I were young, the newspaper business was as easy a way to make huge returns as existed in America. As one not-too-bright publisher famously said, “I owe my fortune to two great American institutions: monopoly and nepotism.” No paper in a one-paper city, however bad the product or however inept the management, could avoid gushing profits.

We show below our common stock investments. With two exceptions, those that had a market value of more than $700 million at the end of 2006 are itemized. We don’t itemize the two securities referred to, which have a market value of $1.9 billion, because we continue to buy them. I could, of course, tell you their names. But then I would have to kill you.

The good news: At 76, I feel terrific and, according to all measurable indicators, am in excellent health. It’s amazing what Cherry Coke and hamburgers will do for a fellow.

The inexorable math of this grotesque arrangement is certain to make the Gotrocks family poorer over time than it would have been had it never heard of these “hyper-helpers.” Even so, the 2-and-20 action spreads. Its effects bring to mind the old adage: When someone with experience proposes a deal to someone with money, too often the fellow with money ends up with the experience, and the fellow with experience ends up with the money.
"

How to manipulate the stock market

Update: Lots of people are coming here from voting sites. You might want to check out my posts on Simplicity, Management, Software Development, Career, or the main blog. If you like the content, you can subscribe to the feed. Thanks.


An interesting account of what actually drives the market. By Jim Cramer in a video interview on TheStreet.com. Cramer is an ex-hedge fund manager (apparently 24% annual return from 1987 - 2000) and the host of CNBC's Mad Money.

Some choice quotes -
"You know, a lot of times when I was short at my hedge fund—when I was positioned short, meaning I needed it down—I would create a level of activity beforehand that could drive the futures. It doesn't take much money."

"What's important when you're in that hedge-fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful. Because the truth is so against your view that it's important to create a new truth to develop a fiction."

"The great thing about the market is it has nothing to do with the actual stocks."


If you have a broadband connection, you can watch the full interview where Cramer gave his "veteran's perspective". Click here for the video. Poor interviewer Aaron Task's expressions with each of Cramer's revelations are priceless!



A more elaborate transcript is below...
"You know, a lot of times when I was short at my hedge fund—when I was positioned short, meaning I needed it down—I would create a level of activity beforehand that could drive the futures. It doesn't take much money. Similarly, if I were long, and I wanted to make things a little bit rosy, I would go in and take a bunch of stocks and make sure that they're higher. Maybe commit $5 million in capital, and I could affect it. What you're seeing now is maybe it's probably a bigger market. Maybe you need $10 million in capital to knock the stuff down.

But it's a fun game, and it's a lucrative game. You can move it up and then fade it—that often creates a very negative feel. So let's say you take a longer term view intraday, and you say, "Listen, I'm going to boost the futures, and the when the real sellers come in—the real market comes in—they're going to knock it down and that's going to create a negative view." That's a strategy very worth doing when you're valuing on a day-to-day basis. I would encourage anyone who's in the hedge fund game to do it. Because it's legal. And it is a very quick way to make money. And very satisfying."
....................................
....................................
....................................
What's important when you're in that hedge-fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful. Because the truth is so against your view that it's important to create a new truth to develop a fiction.
....................................
....................................
The great thing about the market is it has nothing to do with the actual stocks. Now, maybe two weeks from now, the buyers will come to their senses and realize that everything that they heard was a lie, but then again, Fannie Mae lied about their earnings for $6 billion, so there's just fiction and fiction and fiction.

I think it's important for people to recognize that the way that the market really works is to have that nexus of: Hit the brokerage houses with a series of orders that can push it down, then leak it to the press, and then get it on CNBC—that's also very important. And then you have a kind of a vicious cycle down. It's a pretty good game. It can pay for a percentage or two."

Real estate market in Hyderabad etc

This blog has an interesting view on the real estate market in Hyderabad.

Meanwhile, there are plans for 4 completely new cities to be built near Bangalore, Hyderabad, Bombay and Gurgaon. These will be built by Real Estate Investment Trusts.


As usual, make your own research and judgments.

Productively examine your bank statement for fraud etc

My bank sends a printed statement of my account activity every month. Going thru and validating each item in the statement can be a real pain.

Here's one trick I use. Every withdrawal I make from the ATM is always an uncommon amount. For example, I always withdraw $70 from the ATM. When browsing thru the statement, I discard all the 70$ withdrawals and scrutinize the few transactions left.

Now, this technique can be a liability in a focused fraud attack. If somebody knows you always withdraw 70$, then they can take advantage of this and withdraw large amounts in multiples of 70$. You wouldn't notice this in your statement. To prevent this, you can switch to a different uncommon amount every month.


This can also be a way to know at a glance if your significant other is making some significant withdrawals :-).

The greatest challenge and opportunity of our time: relieving other people of their money

"You can take the temper of an era by looking to see what its brightest minds take up. Pythagoras applied himself to geometry. Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin. Wernher von Braun built rockets to blow up London.

But if St. Augustine were alive today, he’d probably be touting the benefits of globalised markets. Isaac Newton would be running a hedge fund in London. And Henri Poincare would be working for Goldman Sachs, calculating the return on a tranche of BBB-rate subprime debt.

Scientists and philosophers alike have turned their focus to the greatest challenge and opportunity of our time: relieving other people of their money. We are voyeurs…gawkers at the merry and absurd world of money
............"

Read the full post at the Daily Reckoning Oz - Subprime mortgage lending & the great liquidity crunch of 2007...

Learning from cabbies

Today I left work a bit early. At 9. Heh... :)
Usually, its very easy to get a cab at 9. But nowadays, I have to call and make a booking by 8:50. After that, the cab phone lines are always busy. And when I get down to the DBS Tower lobby by 9, the whole place is jam-packed with at least 20 cabs. Usually its something like 5. First time I am seeing something like this.

There are lots of investment ideas, lessons and indicators you can learn simply by keeping an open eye (and ear). I still remember one from Ross Mayfield - The parking lot indicator.

Anyway, today's cabbie was telling me that its only in the last month or so that demand for taxi pickup has reached such high levels. He has been a cabbie for 26 years, and the last time was in 1997, just before the the Asian Tiger economies crashed...